Migration is the political wildcard

Migration remains an incendiary political topic that divides electorates like few others. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Migration is as old as humankind and the movement of homo sapiens out of Africa. Today, it’s an incendiary political topic that divides electorates like few others. Look at the US, where immigration at the southern border has become a totemic issue for both main presidential candidates. But Washington is far from alone: migration is dominating politics and economies worldwide. [As our reporting from five continents shows](, it’s influencing the debate in some surprising locations and in unpredictable ways. Take Ireland, a nation marked by emigration, which is now unable to house the numbers of people seeking asylum on its shores. That’s creating tensions with locals over issues like housing, fanning the kind of right-wing populism that has until now been largely absent. Or South Africa, the original Rainbow Nation, where 30 years after the African National Congress assumed power following the defeat of apartheid, the government is turning against immigrants to bolster its flagging electoral fortunes. With officials grasping for answers — see the UK’s legal trouble over attempts to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda — populists everywhere are pushing a narrative that migration is out of control. Yet movement across borders remains the exception, with internal shifts “overwhelmingly the norm,” according to the UN’s International Organization for Migration. The real change of recent years, it says, is that the core drivers of migration — geopolitics, technology and climate change — are intensifying, with a notable rise in irregular channels as safe routes are closed off. That’s generating concerns among businesses in places like the Netherlands, which are warning against curbing access to international talent. More people in a given economy also means a larger pool of labor, and the evidence suggests that few win from restricting migration. For politicians, however, that’s an increasingly contentious argument to make. —[Alan Crawford]( A migrant offers to wash windshields in Denver, Colorado, on Feb. 26. Photographer: Daniel Brenner/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel and the prospect of escalating hostilities [threaten to embroil Jordan](, a key Western ally. Jordanian officials feel caught between an Israeli government which they openly describe as [a threat to regional security]( and a confrontational Iranian regime eager to leverage the increasingly unpopular war in Gaza [to expand its influence](. Approximate path of drones and missiles fired from Iran and Yemen. Source: Bloomberg The MSC Aries wasn’t much different from the other 7,000 container ships on the high seas until it [took an involuntary detour]( into the hands of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard. The vessel serves as an example of the pain global supply chains will feel if the disruptions worsen. Drawn by rapid economic growth, youthful populations and increasing wealth, legions of top multinationals rushed into Africa in recent decades. The difficulties of doing business there — cratering currencies, overweening bureaucracies, unreliable power and congested ports — [have lately dimmed the allure](. The International Monetary Fund has changed its process for supporting countries struggling with debt restructuring, a move aimed at avoiding recent delays widely blamed on China. Officials estimate it will [reduce the time]( between staff agreement and board signoff on an IMF program to as little as two months. With campaigns moving into high gear before the first stage of India’s election kicks off on Friday, political parties are targeting voters — especially a younger, tech-savvy generation — with emotive or often bitingly funny ads, memes, and music videos. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party [maintains an advantage over rivals]( having already used social media to help win the national vote back in 2014. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Chinese counterpart about the situation in the South China Sea and Russia’s war on Ukraine as the two countries [continue a push]( to stabilize ties. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said the prospect of interest-rate cuts later this year would [lift the mood of voters](, a hint that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak won’t call a general election until after the British summer. Thailand and New Zealand have agreed to resume direct flights after the pandemic shut air connectivity as leaders of the two countries [vowed to triple bilateral trade]( in the next two decades. Washington Dispatch Donald Trump seems determined to keep a high profile during [his trial]( in the Manhattan Criminal Court, and today will host [an event]( with the trappings of statesmanship — a dinner with Polish President Andrzej Duda at Trump Tower. Duda, who’s beginning a tour of the US and Canada and met with President Joe Biden at the White House last month, calls Trump a friend and speaks warmly of their relations while he was in office. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a rival of Duda’s, does not share in the admiration, and warned yesterday that a second Trump administration would be detrimental to European security and the future of NATO. Yet Duda’s visit follows that of other international dignitaries. Last week, David Cameron, the UK foreign secretary and a former prime minister, met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Cameron publicly disagreed with Trump, over Brexit and other issues. Foreign governments realize that Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, could again occupy the White House and more such visits likely will be in the offing in the months before the election. One thing to watch today: The Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations holds a hearing on [safety issues at Boeing](. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Sweden’s worst slump in home construction in more than three decades is over for now, a gauge of housing starts in the largest Nordic nation suggested. The indicator from data provider Byggfakta [was largely unchanged in March](, signaling that activity in the sector is stabilizing following two years of sharp declines. And Finally Flights into Dubai were diverted and cars were left stranded on flooded roads after record rainfall over the past day [brought the city to a standstill](. The United Arab Emirates experienced its heaviest downpour since records began in 1949, according to Dubai’s media office. It caused chaos for residents as water entered homes and underground car parks, left some buildings without power and resulted in widespread flooding even a day later. Motorists on a flooded road following heavy rains in Dubai. 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