Beijing readies for Trump

China faces a bruising four years when Donald Trump returns to the US presidency. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. For China, there was never going to be [a good outcome]( in the US election. Donald Trump’s victory, at the very least, does provide it with [a bit more clarity]( over what the next few years might hold. His threat of 60% tariffs is looming over Beijing just as President Xi Jinping is busy trying to stabilize the economy. His latest bid to do that — a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) debt-swap program [announced today]( — disappointed investors looking for more forceful fiscal policies to stem a crisis of confidence and property crunch. Still, some analysts are hoping that Trump’s win means China follows that up with more stimulus. They think the president-elect’s aggressive protectionist stance on trade could force Beijing’s hand to spend more on its economy to boost domestic consumption, which it’s been reluctant to do so far. WATCH: The US and China are locked in a battle for tech supremacy, and it’s set to be a major challenge for Trump. Source: Bloomberg After being somewhat caught on the back foot when Trump kicked off his first trade war in March 2018, Chinese policymakers now have an expanded toolkit to hit back at tariffs. But they’re also unlikely to unleash a hefty chunk of stimulus before Trump details his policy approach. Despite his affinity for trade levies, Trump — the self-proclaimed “Tariff Man” — might not have China at the top of his agenda. Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine are [pressing concerns](. Meanwhile, the [process of doling out levies]( could also be relatively drawn out, with hikes potentially imposed in stages in what JPMorgan calls an “escalate to de-escalate” playbook. A deal could take a while to negotiate: The phase-one agreement during Trump’s first presidency was a product of nearly two years of acrimonious talks. And there’s always the possibility of some sort of [crisis over Taiwan]( derailing any negotiations. Officials in Beijing are looking at a bruising, unpredictable four years. They may want to keep some powder dry until they know just how painful it could all get. — [Rebecca Choong Wilkins]( Source: Bloomberg Global Must Reads Trump’s presidential victory will bolster his business empire that spans media, real estate and crypto, with shares in his social media company alone soaring 60% and adding $2.4 billion to his wealth after the scale of his win became clear. With a personal fortune already estimated at $6.7 billion by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the outlook for [Trump’s many ventures]( has never been brighter. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin began jockeying for influence with Trump, seeking through public statements to [gain an advantage]( in his promised push for an end to their war. The dueling remarks underscored the extent to which Trump’s election has jumbled the international politics around Moscow’s invasion. Friedrich Merz has waited 25 years to become German chancellor and the conservative leader’s best chance is [now just months away](. The head of Germany’s center-right CDU/CSU alliance is the clear frontrunner after Social Democrat Olaf Scholz pulled the plug on his three-party ruling coalition and [called for early elections](. Calm returned to Mozambique’s capital after police used deadly violence to break up a wave [of post-election protests]( yesterday, leaving at least five people dead and 120 injured, according to a human rights group. The ruling party accused the opposition of inciting a coup by [calling for ongoing demonstrations]( against the outcome of last month’s vote that extended its 49-year rule. France is hoping to persuade Poland to scupper a trade deal between the European Union and Latin America’s Mercosur bloc that’s been a quarter of a century in the making. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s cabinet is aiming to convince Warsaw to form a coalition against the pact, amid worries that the European Commission is pushing negotiations to seal the blockbuster deal by the end of the year, [sources say](. The EU and China said they made progress after [a week of technical talks]( in Beijing aimed at scaling back or reversing tariffs that the bloc applied to Chinese-made electric vehicles. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is visiting Beijing for talks with Xi today before heading to the US for a [possible meeting with Trump]( balancing relations with the world’s two biggest economies in his first overseas trip. Ireland’s main opposition party [is in crisis mode]( with Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald facing an uphill battle to regain support ahead of the Nov. 29 election. The impact of the deadly storm that hit Valencia on Oct. 29 has prompted finger-pointing between Spain’s political leaders and shown how [decades of regulatory neglect]( and underinvestment in key infrastructure created the ideal conditions for a preventable disaster. Washington Dispatch Trump reached into the top ranks of his successful campaign to make the first appointment of his new administration, [choosing Susie Wiles]( to be White House chief of staff. Wiles “just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history,” Trump said. An experienced political operative who worked for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis before they fell out, Wiles will be the first woman to hold the post. Susie Wiles. Photographer: Alex Brandon/AP Photo The daughter of professional football player and sportscaster Pat Summerall, she was widely credited with bringing discipline to the operation that took Trump through the primaries for the Republican nomination and into the election. In his first term, Trump ran through several chiefs of staff. His first, Reince Priebus, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, lasted six months. He was followed by ex-Marine Corps General John Kelly, who has called Trump unfit for office. Kelly’s successors were both former congressmen: Mick Mulvaney, who was acting chief of staff, and Mark Meadows. One thing to watch today: The University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment for November is expected to show an improvement. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day The Joe Biden administration is racing to complete Chips Act agreements with more than 20 companies such as Intel and Samsung Electronics, aiming to shore up one of its signature initiatives before Trump enters the White House. The goal is to insulate its industrial policy initiatives [from partisan politics]( while chipmakers want to avoid renegotiating terms with a new government. And Finally Trump’s vow to undertake a US retreat from international climate diplomacy poses a decisive threat to the [fight against global warming]( just days before representatives from nearly 200 nations gather in Azerbaijan for COP29, the annual United Nations climate summit. Without American engagement, efforts to cut emissions could stall in the decade ahead that’s seen as crucial for addressing the rising temperatures that have been blamed for recent extreme weather events. Cars are piled in the street with other debris after flash floods in Valencia last month. Photographer: David Ramos/Getty Images Europe Pop quiz (no cheating!) The president of which country promised a deep purge of diplomats after the nation voted to condemn the US embargo on Cuba at the United Nations? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net More from Bloomberg - [Next China]( for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it’s going next - Check out our [Bloomberg Investigates]( film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries - [Next Africa]( a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed - [Economics Daily]( for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you - [Green Daily]( for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance - Explore more newsletters at [Bloomberg.com](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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