Relying on swing states is a trap

Remember: All politics is local. [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a cost-of-living increase in Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter [here](. [I’m in a State]( Maybe a silver lining of this awful election season is that perhaps more than ever before, we are reminded that the United States are exactly that, 50 states, each with its own peculiarities and peccadilloes. I don’t mean the silliness that you can’t [go whaling]( certain days of the week or [pronounce a certain sibilant]( or [pump gas into your own car]( like God meant you to. Rather, anybody paying attention knows a great deal now about at least seven states, the ones we are repeatedly told hold our political fate: Young people in Wisconsin vote at [twice the national rate]( Pennsylvanians are [fractured]( over fracking; Nevada has a [remarkably high number]( of Asian Americans, and so on. One trap of any presidential election, however, is to view all the data through the lens of the US — the nation — not of those united states themselves. Fortunately, Bloomberg Opinion’s columnists understand that local politics matter a lot because, well, all politics is local. “After more than a decade of serving as a national model for criminal justice reform, Californians seem to have reached a breaking point,” [writes]( Erika D. Smith, our staff Angeleno. “Polls show Democrats and independent voters are prepared to go in a far more conservative direction when they cast their ballots, moving away from policies that have drastically reduced criminal prosecutions and rolled back mass incarceration. Likely to pass, for example, is a [controversial statewide ballot measure]( would make it easier to charge people with felonies for theft and nonviolent drug crimes.” The irony here is that, to some extent, lawlessness in the state has been [declining]( the property-crime rate is at a 64-year low; Los Angeles County reported its [first drop in homelessness]( in six years; overdose deaths are finally beginning to slow in San Francisco. “Still, most Californians have made it clear that they are fed up,” writes Erika. “It doesn’t matter that homeless people are, for example, more likely to be victims than perpetrators of crime. As we’ve seen repeatedly with the economy, individual experiences, and fear tend to trump statistics and facts.” Crime is not the only thing on the ballot in the Golden State. “Among the [10 ballot proposals]( that Californians will vote on next week is one that would raise the state’s minimum hourly wage at employers with more than 25 employees to $17 immediately — which would be the highest state minimum in the US — and $18 in January, with annual inflation adjustments after that,” Justin Fox [writes](. “This would not constitute what you could call a radical change for California, whose minimum wage is already $16 an hour with annual cost-of-living increases, and many coastal communities have higher minimums.” Radical or not, Justin thinks California’s experimentation with those at the bottom of the salary scale is valuable. “Even the enthusiasts among economists still believe, though, that at some level of minimum wage the lunch starts to get expensive. How high is too high?” he writes. “Whatever that appropriate level turns out to be, California is a lot closer to reaching or exceeding it than it was a decade or two ago.” While abortion is one of the biggest issues in the presidential vote, Lisa Jarvis reminds us that it, too, is a local issue. “Yet another heartbreaking and infuriating story has surfaced of a woman dying because of an extreme abortion policy in the US,” she [writes](. “Her name was Josseli Barnica and she was a 28-year-old mother and wife who died from sepsis in 2021 after doctors, fearful of a Texas abortion ban passed before Roe v. Wade was overturned, failed to intervene as she miscarried.” “Since Roe fell, laws around the country have become even more extreme,” adds Lisa. “In Texas, doctors now risk [a $100,000 fine]( and life in prison. Thirteen states have [total abortion bans]( and four more have bans that take effect at six weeks of pregnancy. Every week, more stories emerge about the way abortion bans complicate basic health care for women. The fear, always, was that someone would die from something as common as a miscarriage. And now here we are.” While Democrats hope that the effects of abortion legislation will carry over indirectly into the presidential vote, some Republicans are hoping state laws can be used to directly affect the result — in particular, the 165 election lawsuits filed since 2023. “Most of these have been filed by Republicans trying to use litigation to make it harder to vote or to get your vote counted. The courts have mostly been unsympathetic to the more egregious efforts,” [writes]( Noah Feldman. “In some instances, however, legal actions do involve states that could determine the outcome of the presidential election, such as the dispute over [Pennsylvania mail-in]( ballots. But considered by topic and outcome, no decision thus far seems very likely to make a real difference in this year’s election.” What could make a real difference in future elections would be getting rid of closed primaries, which tend to push candidates toward their parties’ extremes. “Although little noticed amid the relentless attention on Trump and Harris, voters in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and South Dakota will decide whether to adopt open primaries next week,” [write]( the Editors. “The proposals vary, and some include ranked-choice voting, but all share a common principle: Primary ballots would include all candidates regardless of party, be open to all voters regardless of party, and allow the top finishers to advance to the general election regardless of party.” The editors feel passing these laws would be “a victory for more sanity in campaigns and government,” which is bad news for newsletter writers but good for all states, united or otherwise. Bonus [Ballots and Barricades]( Reading: - Why [I’m Voting]( for Kamala Harris — Michael R. Bloomberg - Shoppers [Will Bear the Brunt]( of Trump's Tariffs — Patricia Lopez - Trump’s CBS Lawsuit [Is a Frivolous]( Election Stunt — Noah Feldman [What’s the World Got in Store]( - Fed rate decision, Nov. 7: Pressuring a Central Bank [Is Not Always Wrong]( — Daniel Moss - BOE rate decision, Nov. 7: — UK Budget [Finally Gives]( Labour a Sense of Purpose — Martin Ivens - China trade data, Nov. 7: China [Could Regret]( Not Buying More Trump Insurance — Minxin Pei [In the City]( If indeed all politics is local, nothing is more local than your city. And if your city is Philadelphia, things aren’t looking up. “The city is poor, with a slowly declining population and uncertain prospects,” [writes]( Francis Wilkinson. “It has only partially emerged from a Covid-era slaughter of young Black men who were gunned down on its streets, usually by other young Black men, often for [reasons]( that defy reason at all. Cynicism abounds.” Not helping matters is the continued [opioid epidemic]( Frank Barry, who visited the city earlier this fall, says “more than 1,100 people in Philadelphia have died by overdose every year since 2017.” The city’s stagnation stands in stark contrast to the progress Matthew Winkler [sees]( elsewhere in the Keystone State: As for elections, Philly has also been in free-fall: voting levels are 13% below the Pennsylvania rate. “If the city had mustered the same turnout as the state in 2022, it would have generated an additional 163,000 votes, according to the Voter Project data,” Frank W. writes. “Most of those would have been Democratic votes, which is why Vice President Kamala Harris spent all day Sunday in the city, touring Black- and Puerto Rican-owned businesses. Democrats must reverse the decline because Philadelphia may well determine who wins Pennsylvania. And Pennsylvania may well determine the [fate]( of American democracy.” Well, famous Philadelphian [Apollo Creed]( believed America is the land of opportunity. On Tuesday, we’ll find out if the rest of Philly agrees. Notes: Please send [animal style Double-Doubles]( and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. Want to sponsor this newsletter? [Get in touch here](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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