Markets Daily: A critical two-week stretch

Oil fell after Israel’s retaliatory strikes against targets in Iran avoided crude facilities, raising the prospect for easing hostilities in [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Markets Snapshot [S&P 500 Futures]( [5,881.5]( [+0.61%]( [Nasdaq 100 Futures]( [20,656.5]( [+0.77%]( [US 10-Year Treasury Yield]( [4.26%]( [+0.020]( [WTI Crude Oil Futures]( [67.3]( [-6.24%]( [Gold]( [2,731.38]( [-0.59%]( Market data as of 06:36 am EST. View or Create your [Watchlist]( Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements. Five things you need to know - Oil fell after Israel’s retaliatory strikes against [targets in Iran]( avoided crude facilities, raising the prospect for easing hostilities in the region. Stocks rose and bonds fell. - Donald Trump and Kamala Harris kick off their last full week of campaigning. Trump held a rally Sunday at [Madison Square Garden]( and Harris plans to give a [“closing argument” speech]( Tuesday on the National Mall in Washington. - Boeing plans to begin [an offering of stock and debt]( as soon as today to raise more than $15 billion. - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba promised to [restore political stability]( following the loss of his ruling coalition’s majority in a lower house election. [The yen weakened](. - [Royal Philips shares]( fell the most in 26 years after the medical technology firm slashed its annual sales-growth forecast on tepid demand in China. Crunch time Financial markets are heading for a pivotal two-week stretch. A blockbuster run of big tech earnings, jobs data, the Federal Reserve meeting, Chinese policy and Treasury market announcements, plus the final days of the US presidential election. As Bloomberg’s Markets Live strategist Cameron Crise sums it up: “It will probably be a good idea to strap into your seat,” he says. “There’s a pretty potent cocktail of potential volatility.” Here’s a look at what’s ahead: Earnings season rush: This week is the busiest for company results. Almost half of the S&P 500 reports over the next 10 days, including five of the Magnificent Seven, as well as Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobil and Visa. Nvidia isn’t expected to announce earnings for another month, but [results from the chipmaker’s biggest customers]( set the tone for its shares. Read more in this deep dive of [what stock investors expect for US profits]( US debt sale plan: The Treasury is expected to announce on Wednesday that it’s keeping the size of its debt auctions steady in the upcoming quarter — averting any supply pressures — though traders will also be paying close attention to any signals on the future trajectory. Check out this rundown of [what bond investors are watching]( UK budget day: The Labour government will reveal a [historic package of tax hikes]( and extra borrowing in its budget on Wednesday. Inflation and jobs data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the US employment report for October are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, and may show whether the economy is cooling enough to justify further interest-rate cuts. Employers expanded payrolls by 110,000 workers in October, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The numbers may be distorted some by the hurricanes that struck the southeast US and the strike at Boeing. Here’s a [full economics calendar.]( Japan sets interest rates: The BOJ is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday. Given the yen’s weakness, market players will be looking for any hawkish signals. US election day: Wall Street has been obsessed with the outcome of the race and what it will mean for markets after Nov. 5. Some strategists say win for Republican Trump would send bond yields higher on the basis of his pushes for higher tariffs and tax cuts. A Bloomberg Pulse survey to be released today will show respondents think the stock market is more likely to pick up steam under Trump than Harris. Fed meeting: Swaps are pricing in a more than 80% chance that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point on Nov. 7. But they also signal strong odds that it won’t shift at one of the next two meetings and will look to Chairman Jerome Powell for clues. China policy meeting: The top legislative body will hold a [highly anticipated session]( in Beijing on Nov. 4-8. Investors will be closely watching for any approval of fiscal stimulus to revive the slowing economy. On the move Energy stocks slumped as Israel’s attack on Iran was more restrained than expected. Drilling contractor Noble is falling 2.6%, while Permian Resources, EOG Resources and Halliburton are all down 2% or more and Exxon Mobil is 1.8% lower. Airline stocks are benefiting, with American, United and Delta all up about 2.5%. `Mildly disappointing’ earnings S&P 500 companies are beating profits estimates at the [lowest rate in almost two years]( a trend that could point to declines for stock prices. “The early S&P 500 stats are now pointing to a mildly disappointing reporting season so far,” said Lori Calvasina, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Given peak investor optimism ahead of the season, “we remain on guard for another short-term pullback in US equities,” she wrote in a note. Big Tech companies have something to prove, too. While the sector is still expected to post faster profit growth than the broader market, the rate of expansion will probably be the slowest it’s been in six quarters, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Google’s parent, Alphabet, kicks off this week’s earnings flood in earnest after the market closes tomorrow, with Microsoft and Meta to follow on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday. These stocks have soared through the market’s latest rally, so investors will be looking for clues as to whether they can continue leading indexes higher. —[Sagarika Jaisinghani]( Word from Wall Street "Given the recent moves across markets and the expectations they are pricing in, markets may now be somewhat offside should Harris win, as they would have to reverse course." Vishwanath Tirupattur and James Lord Strategists at Morgan Stanley What else we’re reading - An Indian pharma company is sending [Nvidia chips to Russia]( at war - Crypto’s ‘too big to fail’ token [Tether faces new threat]( from US - [Private equity hipsters]( are coming for your favorite apps How will the US election impact your money? Bloomberg News experts will answer your questions in a live Q&A on Oct. 30 at 10:30am ET. 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