Middle East no closer to peace

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar brings peace no closer [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Israel has fulfilled one of its main goals in Gaza by eliminating [Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar]( a year after his militants killed 1,200 people and kidnapped more than 200 others. Months ago, that might have seemed like one reason for Israel to pull back from the [Hamas-run Gaza Strip]( and help ease a standoff with Iran that has convulsed the Middle East. Right away both US President Joe Biden and [Vice President Kamala Harris called]( for an end to the war, while Israeli domestic pressure mounted to use this moment to bring the hostages home.  But as Israel has enmeshed itself deeper in the Palestinian enclave to the south and in an escalating battle with Lebanon-based Hezbollah to its north, it’s showing no signs [it seeks any cease-fire](. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel’s mission in Gaza is “yet to be completed.” WATCH: Harris says Sinwar’s death offers “an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” Source: Bloomberg Tehran, which backs both militant groups attacking Israel, has also directly escalated, firing some 200 missiles at Israeli targets on Oct. 1. Israel has vowed to respond, prompting calls from Washington that it avoids hitting Iran’s oil and nuclear sites. The triggers for a broader war have long shifted beyond Gaza, which has been left in ruins and where the death toll has reached at least 42,000, according to local health officials. The conflict has also been key for how Netanyahu and his far-right government hold on to power at the top of Israel’s fractious domestic politics. The desire to push on regardless of the wider cost is, however, also a reflection of public sentiment — Israelis still overwhelmingly back the military’s actions against Hamas and Hezbollah, both designated terrorist groups by the US, and see their country as surrounded by enemies. Netanyahu [described Sinwar’s killing]( on Wednesday as “the beginning of the day after Hamas.” What that looks like for the rest of the Middle East is far from certain. — [Sylvia Westall]( Families of the Israeli hostages taken by Hamas and supporters take part in a protest calling for their release in Tel Aviv yesterday. Photographer: Ilia Yefimovich/picture-alliance/AP Photo Global Must Reads Speculation is running high about the deployment of North Korean soldiers to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed a figure of 10,000, but the new NATO chief promptly said there was no evidence. Meanwhile, South Korea called [an emergency meeting]( to discuss the latest intelligence on the military collaboration between Russia and North Korea. Neither US presidential candidate excites China, but conversations in Beijing indicate a clear preference for the [continuity of Harris]( over the unpredictability of her Republican rival, Donald Trump. With US-China ties stabilizing in the past year, despite divisions over issues including Taiwan, a Harris administration would likely allow Xi Jinping’s government to build on that and focus on its economic troubles. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on China as high as 60%, on the other hand, could decimate bilateral trade. Biden and Xi after a meeting in Woodside, California, on Nov. 15, 2023.  Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban again blocked European Union efforts to tweak its Russia sanctions regime, [delaying the step]( needed to unlock American participation in a $50 billion loan to Ukraine until after the Nov. 5 US presidential election. Orban is a strong supporter of Trump, who has criticized US funding for the government in Kyiv and said he will seek a quick deal with Russia to end the Kremlin’s war on its western neighbor. The EU unveiled its Green Deal five years ago to make it the cornerstone of the bloc’s growth while setting the global agenda. Fault lines have now replaced fanfare, and risk handing leadership of the clean industrial era to the US and China, as a [right-wing shift]( in European politics has stirred opposition to the plans despite the intensifying climate crisis. South Africa told Taiwan to move its de facto embassy out of its capital, Pretoria, at the urging of China, a foreign ministry official in Taipei said, [highlighting Beijing’s expanding sway]( among developing nations. The decision marks a significant victory for Xi both to diplomatically isolate Taiwan and to use the BRICS grouping to become more influential around the world. UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy is in China today to seek a revival of [London’s relations with Beijing]( before the British government’s audit of the bilateral relationship. Kenyan senators voted to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua on charges of making inflammatory statements to [stir ethnic hatred]( and undermining the judiciary. Chilean Interior Ministry Undersecretary Manuel Monsalve stepped down following reports that he’s being investigated for rape, [a shock development]( that robs the government of one of its top crime-fighting officials. Washington Dispatch Elon Musk didn’t shy away from hyperbole when he urged Pennsylvanians to vote for Trump in next month’s election, saying it would decide “the fate of Western civilization.” Donning a gold “Make America Great Again” hat, Musk likened the situation at the US-Mexico border to a [“zombie apocalypse”]( and said Harris winning the presidency would make the country “fully Mad Max,” referring to the dystopian action films. His appearance yesterday is the latest step by the on-off world’s richest person to use his wealth and influence to help return the former president to the White House. One thing to watch: Data is expected to show that housing starts remained subdued in September, weighed down by numerous hurricanes and storms. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day So-called non-doms — wealthy foreigners who currently don’t pay UK taxes on their overseas earnings for as long as 15 years — are leaving as Prime Minister Keir Starmer moves to reform [the preferential tax system]( for the small but influential group. And Finally The stench of rotting trash hangs heavily in the air, traffic congestion limits access to shops, and power outages are rife around the Nyakuron Market in downtown Juba, South Sudan’s capital. The scene of urban decay is just the tip of a [catastrophic economic breakdown]( in the country since a pipeline carrying oil that accounts for more than 90% of government revenue ruptured and dried up the coffers of the world’s newest nation. A store is the only source of light in an area of Juba on Sept. 17. Photographer: Kang-Chun Cheng/Bloomberg Pop quiz (no cheating!) NASA launched a mission to which planet’s moon to determine if the conditions to host life are present? 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