Democracy fades in home of Arab Spring

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.When Tunisia’s populist president [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. When Tunisia’s populist president took power five years ago, he beat two dozen opponents in the kind of free vote that made the country a rare democratic beacon in the Arab world. But as Kais Saied, 66, seeks reelection on Sunday, those familiar with the region’s authoritarian regimes — where strongmen win landslides in votes designed solely to rubber-stamp their legitimacy — will see plenty of parallels. The ex-constitutional law professor faces two token challengers, one of whom was just [jailed for forgery](. Mass arrests have swept up the biggest opposition party. The [press has been muzzled](. Even mistakenly [flying the wrong flag]( can land you in prison, as Saied drums up ultra-patriotic sentiment and warns of foreign conspiracies. A rally in support of Tunisian journalists on May 27. Photographer: Hasan Mrad/DeFodi Images News/Getty Images It’s a stark illustration of how far [the North African nation has turned back]( the clock since long-time autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was overthrown in 2011, igniting a wave of Arab uprisings from Egypt to Libya, Syria and Yemen. While others soon succumbed to war or new crackdowns, Tunisia skirted the worst. But squabbling by a new political elite, including moderate Islamists, deepened the economic malaise, opening the door for outsiders like Saied. By late 2021, he’d assumed sweeping powers, shuttering parliament and hobbling the judiciary. Protests were limited. Tunisians may not have liked his moves, but they liked his political opponents even less. The economy has kept stagnating, with the president spurning International Monetary Fund help and Tunisia muddling through, aided by a surprise boom in olive-oil exports and occasional funding from the likes of Saudi Arabia. One new friend is Italy’s right-wing leader, Giorgia Meloni, who’s shoring up Tunisia’s government with financing to curb illicit migration across the Mediterranean. Crossings may have fallen, but as the overwhelmingly youthful population sees opportunities dwindle, Tunisia’s new autocracy may be sitting on another timebomb. — [Souhail Karam]( Demonstrators call for the release of arrested opposition figures in Tunis on May 12. Photographer: Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Israel’s Arab neighbors are caught in a dilemma with the Middle East on the brink of a widening war. Governments such as King Abdullah II’s in Jordan maintain close ties with the US and Israel, but increasingly vocal swathes of their populations are turning [toward Islamist militants]( — called terrorist groups by Washington — and politicians they see as standing up to Israel. Protesters show support for Gaza and Lebanon at the Kalouti Mosque in Amman on Sept. 28 after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Photographer: Nadia Bsesio/Bloomberg The European Union voted to impose tariffs as high as 45% on electric vehicles from China in a move set to [heighten trade tensions]( with Beijing, sources say. Ten member states voted in favor of the measure, while Germany and four others voted against and 12 abstained. The EU says China unfairly subsidizes its industry. Beijing denies the claim and has threatened its own tariffs on European dairy, brandy, pork and automobile sectors. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told the cabinet to draw up a package of economic measures in a show of support to inflation-hit voters, including handouts to low-income households, [ahead of an Oct. 27 general election](. Ishiba’s government has started off with some of the lowest support rates seen in recent years for a new administration. Billionaire Elon Musk said he would attend a rally that Donald Trump is holding tomorrow in Butler, Pennsylvania, the setting of the [first assassination attempt]( on the former US president. At the same time, [Barack Obama will spend]( the final four weeks before Election Day stumping for Kamala Harris and other Democrats in a bid to protect his legacy from Trump. Mexico’s Supreme Court agreed by an 8-3 vote to a request by judges and magistrates to consider a [review of the judicial overhaul]( approved by congress last month, a source with direct knowledge of the decision says. Critics say the reform, which calls all federal judges to be chosen by popular vote, will erode checks on the ruling Morena party’s power and undermine democracy. The EU is moving to sanction Iran for providing [Russia ballistic missiles]( with a package of measures it hopes to approve by the time EU leaders gather for a summit in Brussels later this month, sources say. The United Nations Security Council criticized Israel over its decision to declare Secretary-General António Guterres [persona non grata]( saying that any move to delegitimize his work is counterproductive. Mozambique’s ruling-party candidate in the Oct. 9 presidential election, Daniel Chapo, said he favors talks to end [an Islamic State-backed insurgency]( that’s delayed TotalEnergies’ planned $20 billion natural-gas export project in the northeast. The UN atomic watchdog reinforced warnings on safety risks in Russia’s war on Ukraine after Europe’s largest nuclear power plant [lost a back-up power]( link for 36 hours this week. Washington Dispatch President Joe Biden’s administration has one less crisis on its hands today after the union representing striking dockworkers at East and Gulf Coast ports [agreed to go back to work]( and continue negotiations with the US Maritime Alliance, which represents terminal operators and shipping lines. The announcement by the International Longshoremen’s Association that the contract had been extended until Jan. 15 was a remarkable turn of events in a labor dispute that threatened to disrupt supply chains weeks before the Nov. 5 election. This week’s strike centered on disagreements over pay and automation. Biden, who had put pressure on port employers and shipping lines to reach a deal, commended both sides. “Collective bargaining works,” he said. One thing to watch today: September employment data will be reported; economists [anticipate]( a slight pickup in hiring. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Source: Eurostat France and Italy want to squeeze more tax from companies to bring bloated budget deficits under control and [ensure their credibility]( with bond investors. Measures that target cash-rich firms and the wealthy help governments avoid austerity on the scale seen during the euro-area debt crisis. Across Europe, extra money is needed to fill the hole caused by multiple crises — the cost of Covid support, helping households with energy bills during the inflation spike and funding Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion. And Finally Despite warnings from forecasters, when Hurricane Helene struck Florida and barreled through the eastern US last week, [killing more than 180 people]( and taking whole communities offline, it still managed to come as a shock. Across the US, natural catastrophes are becoming more expensive and more common. Global warming is supercharging the atmosphere with more water and energy, fueling increasingly violent weather. The aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, on Sept. 28. Photographer: Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which country’s new leader describes himself as a “defense nerd”? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. 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