When bad news for China is bad news for all

Plus: The UK's health issues and more [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an equinoctial encapsulation of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - Nike [just did it](. - The secret [weaknesses]( of the US economy. - The US and China need to cooperate on [AI regulation](. - China’s version of the [UBS/Credit Swiss]( merger. - Europe’s still counting its losses from its [bank bailouts](. - What an ailing [Sri Lanka]( really needs. - The world’s no longer sure [what the US stands for](. - Will Britain [tax its rich foreign residents]( - The unruly quest for [the perfect meal](. When China Sneezes, the World Catches a Cold. Part II At the start of the Covid pandemic, health experts liked to repeat an old quip, “When China sneezes, the world catches a cold.” It still applies, but not just about pandemics. For those who like to see global competition as a zero-sum game, the steady stream of news about Chinese contraction sounds like a boost for the coterie of nations that shelter under Washington’s military and economic umbrella. US up, China down. But [that’s myopic]( say John Authers and Richard Abbey. For one, the troubles of China’s housing sector are tied to “global demand for commodities such as steel and other raw materials,” which means those “problems aren’t Beijing’s alone.” John and Richard point out that the Institute of International Monetary Research believes “resolving China’s financial system’s difficulties to be vital for global economic prospects.” What China’s citizens do with their savings can affect the affluence of the rest of the globe. In early September, the French luxury conglomerate Kering SA — which owns Gucci — fell to a [seven-year low]( after analysts said demand from China would probably slow dramatically. Andrea Felsted [noted]( last year that the US and China had taken turns propping up the bling market, but that Alphonse-Gaston routine may soon be out of sync because the Asian nation may no longer be able to keep up its part of the cycle. John and Richard remind us that China appears to be entering a long period of economic malaise, similar to Japan’s lost decades, which Gearoid Reidy [wrote about at length]( in April. But China’s may be worse and more protracted, if not potentially cataclysmic. As Karishma Vaswani [writes]( “The triple whammy of having among the world’s lowest retirement ages, declining birth figures, and rising life expectancy is weighing heavily on finances.” She explains: “China has a three-pillar system: The basic state pension, company or factory contributions and a private component. The vast majority — more than a billion people — are covered by the state scheme. A widely cited 2019 report from the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned the main pension fund would be depleted by 2035, leading to a potential breakdown in the social contract between the Communist Party and its citizens.” China has raised its retirement age in response — which will likely lead to grousing from a large percentage of its population. In the meantime, the betting is that China will miss its 5% growth target this year, as Daniel Moss [observes](. Growth targets have been a Communist tradition for decades — suspended only during the pandemic. Daniel notes that President Xi Jinping seemed to be willing to relax the necessity of hitting the target on the head. In the past, that pursuit inspired data manipulation. “Assuming Xi was signaling some tolerance, this is to be applauded,” says Daniel. But, he adds, “there's an argument to go further and scrap targets altogether.“ He writes, “Sometimes edicts work too well. Beginning to recognize that arbitrary GDP targets aren't sacrosanct is healthy.” The UK Isn’t China but Health Is an Issue, Too In the former empire upon which the sun never sets, the problem isn’t people living longer, as in China. “The improvement in life expectancy that began with the industrial revolution 200 years ago is now grinding to a halt,” [says]( Adrian Wooldridge. He says, “The British are not only sicker, on average, than the inhabitants of most rich countries; they are also in danger of becoming sicker than their parents.” It’s a crisis that affects the country’s productivity as well as British expectations of being kept in the style to which they’ve been used to for decades. That makes it a huge political issue for Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Adrian’s suggestion: “Declaring a health emergency and using every sinew of government power to address it would do much to revive his reputation.” What could that look like? For one, Starmer could regulate the consumption of ultra-processed food, the consequences of which will fall on the generation currently too young to make responsible decisions. “Six out of ten calories consumed by teenagers come from ultra-processed food,” Adrian writes. “That gives the state a legitimate case for imposing more regulation. Many consumers say that they would like to be helped to make better decisions. And many companies say that they wouldn’t push junk food if their competitors also refrained from doing so.” Telltale Chart “Stellantis NV Chief Executive Officer Carlos Tavares often compares the epochal shift to electric vehicles and the rise of Chinese rivals to a ‘Darwinian’ battle, implying automakers that fail to adapt will simply disappear. But the limitations of his dogged cost-cutting and strained relations with trade unions, suppliers and car dealers have become apparent: Stellantis shares have fallen around 50% since the peak in March, amid a succession of high-profile management departures and a steep decline in profitability.” — Chris Bryant in “[How $90,000 Jeeps Made a Fool Out of Me]( Further Reading KKR is trying to avoid a messy [Politico](. — Chris Hughes Will [Salesforce]( a force in the AI race? — Parmy Olson The [narcissist]( in Pyongyang plots a surprise. — Andreas Kluth The worrisome “wild west” of [testosterone]( hacking. — Chris Bryant Mexico’s [new president]( must get out of the shadow of the old. — Juan Pablo Spinetto The new [Playstation]( costs what?!? — Gearoid Reidy Walk of the Town: Autumn in New York I’m in New York this week to celebrate the life of a friend who passed away in the summer. Here, fall will officially begin with the arrival of the equinox over the weekend. Though I now also call London home, the seasons of New York still have a deeper personal resonance for me. April 2015: the Sherry-Netherland on the right; the Pierre on the left. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg While taking my near-daily 2-½ mile walk to work sometime in 2015, I started documenting the reflections in the pond at the southeast corner of Central Park. During this time, a new tower was being built between the 97-year-old Sherry-Netherland hotel and the Pierre, its 94-year-old neighbor on the next block on 5th Avenue. November 2016: The upstart partially up between the architectural icons. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg The newcomer is a fixture of the skyline now, though it is one of the more nondescript of the spires to crop up in the city over the last decade. I have some 200 shots tediously recording how it turned the classic duo reflected in the lake into a trio. That’s hashtagged in my Instagram account (#hceasons) for anyone who cares to pore through it. September 2024 Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg My favorite image, however, has no buildings reflected in the pond. It was taken as the sun came out after a blizzard in the winter of 2016, with a surprise springing out of the snowy bushes. Autumn in New York, followed by winter in New York. No matter the season, it’s good to live it again. January 2016 Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Drawdown Thanks for hanging around. I don’t know where the time went. ”Sorry for the wait, sir. But I’m George, your AI Chat Assistant. The name you just muttered hasn’t been here for 2,000 years. Not sure when he’ll return.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send revelations and otherworldly feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. [Sign up here]( and follow us on [Instagram]( [TikTok]( [Twitter]( and [Facebook](. 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