A new missile crisis

Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is approaching a crunch moment. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up [here](. Keir Starmer was born a month before the Cuban Missile Crisis, the standoff in October 1962 that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. When the British prime minister meets US President Joe Biden in Washington today, they’ll [face a choice]( with similarly momentous implications: whether to enable Ukraine to fire Western weapons at military targets deep inside Russia. Vladimir Putin [warned bluntly yesterday]( that such a step will mean Ukraine’s US and NATO allies “are at war with Russia.” The Kremlin leader controls the world’s biggest nuclear arsenal. On the day Russia began its February 2022 invasion, he threatened consequences “such as you have never seen” for anyone siding with Ukraine. As its war has faltered, Russia repeatedly threatened escalation if successive red lines were crossed. Ukraine and its allies [called its bluff]( each time. Kyiv and some eastern European states argue this shows Putin is the emperor with no clothes, and that Ukraine must be empowered to defeat Russia to achieve a just resolution of the war. WATCH: Leon Panetta, a former US Defense Secretary, says Ukraine needs “a little more room” to be able to strike at Russian targets. Source: Bloomberg TV Western assessments that Iran sent ballistic missiles to Russia to aid its attacks on Ukraine have apparently bolstered that case. Biden and Starmer are weighing whether to let Ukraine conduct long-range strikes in Russia with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles [guided by US navigational data](. It’s a calculated gamble that Ukraine will either destroy airbases and missile depots used to bomb its cities, or that Russia will withdraw its weapons beyond strike range and render them ineffective. Putin faces exposure as a weak leader for Russians if Ukraine and NATO ignore his warnings of war. A nuclear ultimatum from Moscow in response to the strikes risks triggering a second missile crisis. Who’ll blink first? The war is approaching a crunch moment.— [Anthony Halpin]( A Storm Shadow cruise missile. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg Global Must Reads Negotiations are the only way to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun said in an address in Beijing today to officials from dozens of countries, including Russia and the US. He also called on leading powers [not to “bully” the weak]( and for regional nations to manage their own security, in remarks designed to portray China as an alternative to the Western-led world order. Damage yesterday following an Israeli raid on a school sheltering displaced Palestinians in Nuseirat, central Gaza. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump traded jabs over their first televised debate as they returned to the campaign trail with visits to two crucial swing states in the November election. While Harris is seeking to harness momentum [from her strong performance]( in the TV faceoff, Trump sought to regain his footing after his unsteady showing and ruled out another encounter. Elon Musk has labeled the Australian authorities “fascists” over proposed new laws to fine social-media companies up to 5% of their annual revenue if they fail to [take steps to manage misinformation](. Over the past year, the government has taken the tech billionaire’s X to court to try to remove a video of a terrorist attack and has proposed introducing age limits for teenagers using digital platforms. North Korea published its first photos of a facility to enrich uranium for atomic bombs, showing leader Kim Jong Un touring the Nuclear Weapons Institute, which is the production base of weapons-grade materials. The plant is at the center of a program that has been [a point of friction with the US]( for more than 20 years. Germany sent its first warship through the Taiwan Strait in 22 years, [defying China’s warnings]( as relations between the two sides fray over trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin that the strait is “the shortest and, given the weather conditions, also the safest route.” A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said this month that any transit would be an “act of provocation.” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating fell to 20% in a weekly tracking poll, [its lowest level]( since he took office in 2022, on concerns over strains to the medical system from thousands of doctors remaining on strike to protest the government’s reform plans. China will raise the retirement age for the first time since 1978, a move that will [take place gradually]( over the next 15 years and is likely to slow a decline in the labor force and support the economy. Pravin Gordhan, the anti-apartheid activist and veteran South African government minister who earned plaudits [for standing up to Jacob Zuma]( during his scandal-marred presidency, has died. He was 75. Armed groups waging a civil war in Sudan are suspected to [have looted priceless artifacts]( from a museum that houses much of the North African nation’s rich cultural heritage. Washington Dispatch Trump will continue his tour of western states today after proposing a new benefit for hourly workers — eliminating [taxes on overtime.]( The former president has already pledged to end levies on social security benefits and on tips — an idea that Harris has also embraced. A spokesman for her campaign said Trump’s pledge on overtime tax was a sign that he’s “desperate and scrambling and saying whatever it takes to try to trick people into voting for him.” One thing to watch today: The University of Michigan’s monthly survey is expected to show an improvement in consumer sentiment. Check out [Republic of Distrust]( a new Bloomberg Opinion series examining how Americans have lost faith in major institutions. [Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter]( for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Australia expects to start shipping green hydrogen abroad [by the end of this decade]( seeking to spur global trade for the fuel seen as key to cutting emissions in energy-intensive industries like steelmaking. Although the nation’s vast open spaces give it a geographical advantage to build the solar farms and wind turbines needed to power electrolyzers, BloombergNEF still expects the US, Europe and China to account for 80% of supply by 2030. And Finally Last year was the worst on record for wildfires and one model of aircraft has [become increasingly important]( in tackling them. After a nearly 10-year production hiatus, Canadair amphibious firefighting planes are now among the world’s most sought after aircraft — and the European Union is helping revive their fortune with a bumper order. The aircraft scoop up water from lakes or seas and fly as low as 100 feet (30 meters) above burning infernos. A Croatian Canadair firefighting airplane drops water on a large wildfire burning in the hills above Rence, Slovenia. Photographer: Luka Dakskobler/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images Pop quiz (no cheating!). In which country has the world’s oldest guerrilla force restarted its war on the oil industry with a wave of pipeline attacks? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. 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