The numbers behind the Trump-Harris debate spin

I’m Jonathan Levin, and this is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a pre-debate snack of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up here. Crime under Biden [Bloomberg]( I’m Jonathan Levin, and this is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a pre-debate snack of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. Sign up [here](. Today’s Agenda - [Crime]( under Biden-Harris. - The administration’s [health]( record. - [Inequality]( and real wages. - The [immigration]( challenge. - The dollar and [Don Quixote](. - Sovereign wealth [funds](. - Big Oil’s less-big [buybacks](. - European [sentiment](. It’s debate night in America, and Vice President Kamala Harris will get the opportunity to defend the Biden-Harris record on a range of issues, including real wages, crime and immigration. Bloomberg Opinion columnists have drilled down on the administration’s performance across 10 key metrics, and the results paint a picture of a government that’s made remarkable strides in certain areas — but needs work in others. Let’s start with the positive. On crime, Justin Fox [writes]( that the US was in the middle of a burst of violence when President Joe Biden took office. But murders have been falling since autumn 2021, and reports from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Major Cities Chiefs Association suggest that other violent crimes have started to decline as well. “Trump’s repeated attempts to make crime a top campaign issue keep running into the inconvenient truth that by most measures it was much worse when he left office in January 2021,” Fox writes. Another Biden-Harris success story, according to Lisa Jarvis, is the administration’s record on affordable health care. The share of uninsured Americans hit an all-time low of 7.2% in 2023, and although it’s creeped up a bit recently, the overall trend is an improvement over what the Biden-Harris administration inherited. “Biden’s other big health care legacy will be his success in lowering prescription drug prices for seniors,” Lisa [writes]( citing the $35-a-month price cap on insulin for those on Medicare and an annual cap on out-of-pocket prescription drug costs. It hasn’t been all sunshine and roses. As Allison Schrager [writes]( most Americans didn’t see much wage improvement at all after adjusting for inflation. Technically, the real wage dynamics did a bit to reduce inequality, since wages for the bottom 10% have increased some, while the 50th percentile essentially flatlined and real wages declined for the highest earners. But ideally, you’d prefer to see the income gap closed under more bullish circumstances. James Gibney [notes]( that it “may be too late to deflect criticism after four years of record-breaking migration across the southern border.” He points out the “more than 8 million encounters between ports of entry” and the doubling of the asylum case backlog. A recent executive order brought the number of US Border Patrol encounters back down to levels seen under Trump, and James says that Harris’s border positions are “more reality-based” than Donald Trump’s proposed wall and his “morally bankrupt, economically catastrophic and logistically impossible” plan to deport more than 11 million undocumented migrants. Yet fundamentally, he says that the country needs bipartisan legislation to fix the immigration system. Bonus: Read about the rest of the 10 metrics [here]( and check out this Bloomberg Opinion video live [stream]( on the package here. Bad Policy Grab Bag Let’s turn to the policy sphere, where the news cycle — as it is wont to do in presidential election years — has brought us a grab bag of bad proposals. First up is Trump’s proposed “100% tariff” on countries that turn away from the dollar. As Robert Burgess [points out]( Trump’s proposal is based on the false premise that the dollar is “under major siege,” which simply isn’t the case. Under Biden, Robert says the dollar’s share of global currency reserves has stabilized after falling sharply under Trump. What’s more, Bob says that Trump’s tariff plans could actually push people away from the dollar and disrupt flows in the global economy. “Like Don Quixote, who attacked windmills in the mistaken belief that they were wicked giants, Trump is known for assailing imaginary enemies or evils,” Bob writes. Quixote eventually realized his mistake, but “Trump has yet to reach that point.” Item No. 2 in the Bad Policy Grab Bag comes via the latest Tyler Cowen column, which addresses the buzzy new idea for a US sovereign wealth fund. As Tyler [writes]( “a US sovereign wealth fund is not just another crazy idea from Donald Trump. It is a crazy idea supported by hedge fund billionaire John Paulson and under consideration by President Joe Biden.” Sovereign wealth funds have done some good things for the people of Singapore, Norway and the United Arab Emirates. But as Tyler notes, such wealth funds tend to work in countries that run budget surpluses which … definitely isn’t the case in the US. It has a 123% debt-to-GDP ratio, and it would have to borrow even more money for the proposed sovereign wealth fund. “This is one idea that should be left to the side,” Tyler says. Telltale Charts Big Oil has enjoyed quite a bonanza in recent years, according to Javier Blas, and that’s led to elevated payouts to shareholders through stock buybacks. “But the tailwind has now turned into a headwind, and the size of the group’s share repurchases will drop, probably from 2025 onward,” Javier [writes](. Shifting tides could have a big impact, with ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc repurchasing tens of billions a year in shares at present. John Authers’ [latest](bbg://news/stories/SJL0IUDWX2PS) newsletter weighs in on the extremely weak investor sentiment in European markets, with Sentix’s latest survey showing institutions getting increasingly glum. “Their view of the current climate has been negative for even longer than during the sovereign debt crisis, which saw the EU bail out Greece and other peripheral nations to avert defaults,” John writes. Further Reading There are [red flags]( in Musk’s mixing of his Tesla and AI interests. —  Liam Denning The West has plenty of [homegrown]( disinformation beyond Putin’s. — Marc Champion There are reasons to be [optimistic]( about Europe. — Lionel Laurent ICYMI Hedge [fund]( firm Bridgewater Associates is finally getting some space in Manhattan. Tropical Storm Francine is poised to become a [hurricane](. Apple lost a court [case]( over its Irish tax bill. Kickers This Brazilian border [collie]( is very good at the beach sport footvolley. A Florida golf course was [sold]( community members reportedly didn’t notice. The New York Times looks [inside]( funeral home for “luminaries.” Notes: Please send post-debate spin (and feedback on this newsletter) to Jonathan Levin at jlevin20@bloomberg.net. Follow Us Stay updated by saving our new email address Our email address is changing, which means you’ll be receiving this newsletter from noreply@news.bloomberg.com. 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