India and Modi high step into China’s backyard

Plus: A place where heads rolled and more [Bloomberg]( This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a choreographed whirl through Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. [Sign up here](. Today’s Must-Reads - The banality of nuclear [Armageddon](. - Too much wind in that [moonshot](. - Blockchain [goes to market](. - Macron finally picks a [prime minister](. Modi Goes on a Charm Offensive With China burdened by an intractable economic slowdown, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has gone on a multi-nation tour to impress its newfound influence around the world. He’s just been to both Kyiv and Moscow. This week, he’s in Brunei and Singapore in Southeast Asia, a region China considers its backyard. Is New Delhi making a bid to be a power broker there? As Karishma Vaswani [writes]( “The trip comes as the world’s fastest-growing major economy is trying to position itself as a worthy alternative to China, its rival in the Global South.” It’s a good time for Modi to be taking his show on the road. Indian politics hasn’t completely gone his way recently, given his ruling party’s loss of its parliamentary majority (it’s the senior member of a coalition). Why not show his constituents that world leaders are still happy to listen to him and welcome him lavishly? The cultures of the subcontinent have centuries of deep cultural and trading relations with Southeast Asia. In the Philippines, where I grew up, the national language is studded with words derived from Sanskrit, like guro (teacher, from the original guru) and pitaka (wallet, from the word for basket). You might even argue that India is simply taking back its rightful place as the first among equals in the region. In the 1950s, Karishma writes, “If you were to have placed a wager on which country would rise as a global economic leader, the smart money would have been on India. Its strong civil service, railways and the English language made it a safer bet compared to an unstable China.” However, she feels that India will trip over itself — or its habits — in the endeavor because of its “insular trade policies and a ‘me-first’ approach to foreign and security affairs.” Indeed, within its own South Asian backyard, New Delhi is facing opposition not just from traditional rival Pakistan but from Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as well — countries that feel that India is as big a bully as the British Raj that once ruled them all. Dhaka, for one, feels that its recently ousted leader, Sheikh Hasina, had bound herself and the country too closely to India. The people power movement that overthrew her does not have warm feelings for India, where Hasina has taken refuge. Bangladesh may actually be trying to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. That’s not likely to happen soon (given ASEAN’s tumultuous experience with its newest member Myanmar). But if it does, that means China’s backyard will have gotten bigger — at the expense of India’s. Walk of the Town: Where Heads Rolled Those of you who read Bloomberg Opinion’s Friday newsletter regularly are used to the “Walk of the Town” section coming further down, but news, history and travelogue come together this week. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, [says]( Adrian Wooldridge, is becoming as dour a leader as Oliver Cromwell was in the Puritan revolution that beheaded King Charles I in 1649. Cromwell, who assumed the title of Lord Protector, “waged unforgiving war on popular amusements such as drinking, bloodsports, gambling, ‘promiscuous dancing,’ and Christmas.” Adrian adds that Starmer “never appears in public without adding to the sum of human misery.” (Think budget crises, higher taxes, no more smoking outside pubs.) At the very least, it is a timely comparison. This week also marked the 366th anniversary of Cromwell’s death. When the monarchy was restored in 1660, King Charles II avenged his father by ordering the corpse of the Lord Protector disinterred and beheaded. It’s still debated whether the body that was removed from Westminster Abbey was Cromwell’s. Several places have claimed to possess his head. His alma mater, Cambridge University, may have the most compelling argument. In any case, given the grim subject, I decided to walk by the Tower of London, along the neighborhood I used to live. In fact, right across the street from my former apartment building is Tower Hill, where several notable nobles and unfortunate servants of the crown lost their heads, including Cromwell’s great-great-grand-uncle, Thomas (the subject of Hilary Mantel’s monumental Wolf Hall novels). It’s a doubly significant week for London history: the Great Fire of London broke out on Sept. 2, 1666, and destroyed much of the old city. By then, of course, both Cromwells were dead, if not entirely buried. Plaque at Tower Hill, marking the site of the executioner’s scaffold. Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Given its reputation, Tower Hill was the site of the public execution of only about 125 individuals. Those with pretensions to nobility (among them, two queens of Henry VIII) were decapitated privately across the street, behind the walls of the Tower of London itself. It’s still a long, gruesome legacy (oh yes, centuries after, Jack the Ripper roamed the area too). As I’ve [said before]( I’m always surprised that, when it rains here, blood doesn’t seep out of the ground. Telltale Charts “[Y]ou could keep all of America’s coal boilers and blast furnaces going until Thanksgiving in 2025 with the reserves of solid fuel that Chinese industries have built up in the last couple of years. … China has accounted for about 97% of the world’s increase in coal production since 2018. Now, however, it has been left with a vast and slowly deteriorating pile of solid fuel. … There’s little reason for climate advocates to celebrate the fact that this inventory isn’t being burned. Coal that’s oxidized in a stockpile will produce carbon dioxide just as surely as the stuff that’s incinerated in a power plant — it just won’t produce any useful energy, a worst-of-both-worlds situation.” — David Fickling in “[You Could Power America With China’s Wasted Energy]( “Febrile politics, a runaway budget deficit, potential credit rating downgrades, unwind of the yen carry trade, a weak economy and worsening export prospects present a bleak picture for already-underperforming French assets. … France's fiscal position is dire. The Finance Ministry warned ... that the budget deficit could reach 5.6% of gross domestic product this year, surpassing 2023 and missing its own 5.1% target, and deteriorate to 6.2% in 2025. This will perturb the European Commission in Brussels, which has already placed France, along with Italy and five other EU states, on warning.” — Marcus Ashworth in “[The Vanishing Bull Case for Investing in France]( Further Reading Who’s going to eat [Wall Street’s lunch]( — Paul J. Davies Banks [stay lean]( by being mean. — Marc Rubinstein Is it really free speech versus regulation for [social media]( — Catherine Thorbecke Kamala Harris’ [golden silence]( on China. — Minxin Pei Should countries be paid for [being green]( — Lara Williams Japan’s second city finally takes [a first prize](. — Gearoid Reidy Taking the war [underground](. — James Stavridis Drawdown Thanks for bearing with me through all the sticky weather. How’s the climate treating you? ”I know the footprint is enormous, but we can say it’s green enough.” Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send autumnal thoughts and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. 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