Harris-Walz Memo: The State of The Race

[View this email in your browser]( [Donate To Harris For President]( The State of the Race To: Interested Parties From: Harris-Walz Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon Date: September 1, 2024 Subject: The State of the Race Vice President Harris is running for the future and to turn the page on the division of Donald Trump - and Americans are energized behind that message. Since Vice President Harris entered the race in late July, our campaign has seen [record fundraising numbers]( a [surge]( in volunteer interest, and a [spike]( in enthusiasm to participate in this November’s election. However, make no mistake: we head into the final stretch of this race as the clear underdogs. Donald Trump has a motivated base of support, with more support and [higher favorability]( than he has had at any point since 2020. In just a few short days, Vice President Harris will face Trump on the debate stage, where we expect him to be a formidable opponent. In 2020, the election came down to about 40,000 votes across the battleground states. This November, we anticipate margins to be similarly razor-thin. The difference maker will be which campaign has the candidate, the infrastructure, and the grit capable of expanding their support to build the type of broad, diverse coalition that wins elections. Every day, Vice President Harris proves she is that candidate. Vice President Harris is running on a popular agenda that matters to voters at the ballot box. Trump will have to answer for Project 2025. Vice President Harris comes to the job of president as someone acutely focused on the issues that matter to voters most when they get home from work at night. She grew up in a middle-class household and her agenda reflects those values: a [plan]( to cut taxes for the middle class, lower grocery costs, and make housing more affordable for every American. Her economic vision is both good for the country and popular with the voters who will decide this election: Vice President Harris’ plans are pragmatic and focused on solutions, while a [clear majority]( of swing voters see Trump as more extreme. They also prefer a candidate who is “honest,” and “fights for the working class,” — key elements of Vice President Harris’ pitch to voters this fall. Vice President Harris is also running on one of the most galvanizing issues in recent elections: restoring reproductive freedom. Voters identified reproductive rights as a top issue influencing their vote in the 2022 midterm elections: In [CNN’s 2022 pre-election poll]( nearly three-quarters of voters called abortion very important to their vote, and a majority of voters called it extremely important. This trend continues in 2024, where 76% of voters have [identified]( abortion as an important issue in this election, and nearly half of voters ranked it as very important. Vice President Harris’ steadfast support for reproductive rights and her clear-cut messaging on restoring the protections of Roe is a powerful piece of how this campaign will expand our coalition and path to victory. Recent polls show Vice President Harris has room to expand her support with voters, as she makes significant inroads with voters and holds leads on core issues like [crime]( (+1), [democracy]( (+5), [abortion]( (+17), [health care]( (+7), [gun violence]( (+5) and [gaining]( and even [leading]( (+1) on the economy, an issue where Republicans often hold large leads. Meanwhile, Trump is burdened with defending the indefensible: Project 2025. New [polling]( shows that voters are strongly aware of Trump’s extreme Project 2025 and the more they learn, the more they oppose it. And no matter how hard he tries to [separate himself from Project 2025]( and its litany of unpopular proposals (cutting Social Security, defunding K-12 education, and instituting a nationwide abortion ban to name a few), Trump won’t be able to shake his ties to Project 2025 thanks to our team’s [aggressive efforts]( online and through [paid media]( to cast a spotlight on Trump’s connection to Project 2025 for every day between now and Election Day. Elections are a choice, and the choice between turning the page toward the future with Vice President Harris or going backwards with Trump will be on full display at the September 10 presidential debate. With hundreds of millions of dollars in paid media creative already lifting up Trump’s extreme and losing agenda, the debate will be another opportunity for us to break through and showcase the two very contrasting visions for the future of our country. In an election that will be decided in the states, ground game matters more than ever. Since Vice President Harris became the nominee, we have seen tremendous momentum and gains across every battleground. We maintain multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes, and are growing strength across the types of voters who decide elections in every battleground. However, the race remains very close, and will be decided by a small number of undecided voters. That universe of voters does not like Donald Trump, but needs to hear relentlessly from us about Vice President Harris and her vision for the country. That’s what makes our operational strength so critical.  Heading into the final stretch, our operational strength matters more than ever. Since Vice President Harris entered the race, she’s raised more than $540 million - a historic sum. That money is going directly to a relentless battleground operation, with more than 312 coordinated offices and 2,000 coordinated staff in the states – a reflection of a campaign with presences in every corner of every battleground state and with the communities critical to victory. During a recent Weekend of Action, more than 10,000 volunteers made nearly 900,000 calls and knocked on 150,000 doors, contacting more than 1 million voters. - In the battlegrounds, we are working to persuade moderate and Republican voters, and cut Trump’s margins in rural areas and red counties. We have offices in rural counties like Washington and Jenkins in Georgia, Union and Jefferson in Pennsylvania, Jackson and Wilson in North Carolina, and Waushara and Rusk in Wisconsin. - Recently, we launched the [Latinos con Harris-Walz]( WhatsApp channel, a first-of-its-kind effort to reach Latinos on the election in a place where many get their news from. - Team Harriz-Walz is bolstering its efforts to reach Black voters by continuing to partner with community and faith leaders across battleground states to host  events within the communities that will decide this election – including during the upcoming HBCU homecoming season. - Last week, we announced a ramp up of efforts on hundreds of college campuses to engage students. - And just this Tuesday, we will launch our “Fight for Our Reproductive Freedoms” bus tour – an effort that will last until Election Day to drive home the threat Trump poses to women’s reproductive rights. On the airwaves, we are ceding no ground: through a [landmark]( $370 million investment on digital and television advertising between Labor Day and Election Day, the Vice President will be making the case everywhere to battleground voters on the issues that matter most to them – all the while Team Trump has reserved virtually zero media reservations for the long-term. In an election that will be decided on the margins, Trump’s campaign still [lags]( far behind in the infrastructure needed to win in key battleground states. In Nevada, Team Harris has 14 offices and more than 100 full-time employees, while Trump has [just five]( offices and about 24 staff. In Pennsylvania, we have [50]( coordinated offices while Trump’s campaign trails and won’t say [where they are located](. In Georgia, we have 24 offices while the Trump team [didn’t open their first until June](. And while we go on offense to expand our map, the Trump team is on its back foot. In states like [North Carolina]( and [Georgia]( Team Trump is being forced to spend in ways they did not plan to originally. The Road Ahead: While Donald Trump is a heavily defined candidate, voters do not know Vice President Harris or Governor Walz as well. While we continue to ramp up our organizing and paid efforts, over this final stretch, an aggressive campaigning schedule to introduce and define our ticket to the voters that will decide this election will be critical. From Labor Day through November 5, Vice President Harris, Governor Walz, and our army of trusted, mobilizing surrogates are hitting the road to do the work to win every single vote. The campaign plans to ramp up our aggressive principal travel schedule to continue to build a presence in the communities and states we need to win on Election Day. On Labor Day alone, the Vice President will travel to Detroit, Michigan and then join President Biden in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, while Governor Walz and First Lady Gwen Walz will spend their Labor Day in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Harris-Walz campaign also plans to send key surrogates including Governor JB Pritzker, Mitch Landrieu, and Tom Perez, and others to top battlegrounds including North Carolina, Nevada, and Georgia. Key moments ahead, like the September 10 presidential debate and the start of Hispanic Heritage Month, will critical in activating supporters and surrogates to campaign in battleground states. Labor Day also brings the start of voting season, with the first ballots of this election being mailed to voters later this week. As Americans begin to cast their votes, Team Harris-Walz and Democrats across the country are focused on making sure every eligible voter can cast a ballot and have that ballot counted. With tools like [IWillVote.com]( Democrats are giving voters all the resources they need to make their voices heard in this election. Our campaign is also building the largest voter protection program in American presidential history. We have more than 100 voter protection staff across a dozen states, with thousands of volunteers nationally. We are continuing to recruit poll and count observers as well as volunteers for our hotline, which will bolster other state and national hotlines. And as more Americans begin early voting, we will work to make sure every single eligible voter has a plan to make their voices heard. Bottom line: Make no mistake: the next 65 days will be very hard. This race will remain incredibly close, and the voters who will decide this election will require an extraordinary amount of work to win over. But we have the candidate, message, and operation that brings Americans together to chart a new way forward, so we can once again defeat Donald Trump. 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