[Altos Weekly Traders Edge] A Bull Market Unbound by Rates...Details Inside

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Despite this, major stock indices like the S&P 500 have continued to climb, recently achieving a record number of all-time highs in 2024. This bull market has also deviated from the norm in terms of stock performance. Typically, small-cap stocks surge during early bull market phases. However, this time around, small-cap performance has lagged significantly behind the gains seen in large-cap stocks. This unusual trend is attributed to the sustained high and stable interest rates, creating an environment where growth stocks have flourished while small-caps struggle to keep pace. Despite these unexpected trends, the bull market remains robust. Key indicators of investor sentiment, such as sector correlations to the market, suggest continued confidence in the market's trajectory. These correlations, which tend to rise during times of economic uncertainty, have fallen from recent highs, indicating that investors remain optimistic. The current market environment can be described as a "goldilocks zone" – a state of equilibrium where investors are discerning, picking winners and avoiding losers, without succumbing to excessive optimism. This balanced approach has allowed the market to sustain its growth trajectory despite the unusual interest rate environment. Looking forward, there is potential for continued growth, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors. Additionally, there is room for small-caps to catch up, offering further opportunities for investors. This unique bull market, characterized by its unexpected resilience in the face of stable interest rates, continues to present intriguing possibilities for those navigating its course. - The Team at Altos Trading In the next article, while the US economy currently appears robust, a closer examination of the labor market reveals potential vulnerabilities that could threaten its stability. Sponsor Have you heard of the “Master Indicator” The “Master Indicator” has called major market moves and is guiding countless traders right now. From the Covid crash to today’s S&P rally, it’s been spot-on. Join pro trader Lance Ippolito for a free session to learn more today! [Click here to secure your spot!]( The performances displayed here are historical examples based on indicator entry and exit signals for the time period shown. The profits and performance shown are not based on any sort of typicality as there are no published alerts associated. We make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from The TradingPub and its partners ([privacy policy]( Is Labor Weakness Undermining the US Economy? The U.S. economy may appear to be riding high, but lurking beneath the surface are warning signs that could cut the current wave of optimism short. Although many analysts point to a strong labor market, there are growing concerns that these numbers are not telling the full story, with potential weaknesses threatening to drag the economy into a recession. Recent employment data paints a mixed picture. While the jobless rate was reported at 4.1%, a closer look suggests a much higher figure of 4.5% if temporary government positions are excluded. These temporary jobs, primarily state and local positions created with COVID-era stimulus funds, have bolstered the labor market’s appearance, but the majority of these roles are not permanent. As the fiscal year ended on September 30th, the sustainability of these jobs is in question, potentially leading to rising unemployment in the months ahead. A surge in state and local government employment was largely driven by $500 billion in pandemic stimulus programs finally reaching regional governments this year. In a rush to meet fiscal deadlines, many governments created new jobs, but the temporary nature of these positions could prove problematic. Unless local governments are willing to fund these roles with their own budgets, a wave of layoffs is expected. This potential rise in unemployment could signal deeper issues within the economy. Historically, when temporary help services jobs trend downward for more than three months, a recession often follows. Currently, this key indicator has been in decline for the past 18 months, raising red flags about the broader economic outlook. Despite some concerns about the labor market, consumer spending has remained strong, continuing to drive growth even as joblessness has edged up. However, consumer confidence is also showing cracks. The Consumer Confidence Index fell below expectations in September, signaling that the foundation of consumer-driven growth may be weakening. This drop in confidence suggests that the resilience of the U.S. consumer might not last. The strong spending seen in recent months has been bolstered by leftover pandemic stimulus programs, but with those effects fading, consumer activity could begin to slow. Given that consumer spending accounts for 80% of the economy, any significant pullback would have far-reaching consequences. The narrative of a “soft landing” for the economy—where inflation cools without triggering a recession—has been fueled by strong consumer activity. But with rising unemployment and declining confidence, this optimism may soon be challenged. The outlook for the U.S. economy depends heavily on whether consumers can maintain their spending habits in the face of a weakening labor market. As the months ahead unfold, the strength of the labor market and the health of consumer spending will be critical in determining whether the U.S. can avoid a deeper economic downturn. 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However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA Disclaimer: The Altos Trading Alert Newsletter is published as an information service for subscribers, and it includes opinions as to buying, selling and holding various stocks and other securities. However, the publishers of the Altos Trading Alert Newsletter are not brokers or investment advisers, and do not provide investment advice or recommendations directed to any particular subscriber or in view of the particular circumstances of any particular person. Altos Trading, including its owner, does not participate in any trades issued through the alert services. Subscribers to Altos Trading or any other persons who buy, sell or hold securities should do so with caution and consult with a broker or investment adviser before doing so. Trading securities and options involves risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Investors need a broker to trade securities and options, and must meet suitability requirements. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performance figures are based on actual recommendations. Due to the time critical nature of trading, brokerage fees, and the activity of other subscribers, there is no guarantee that subscribers will mirror the performance of the service. Performance numbers shown are based on trades subscribers could enter based on the trade alerts. Altos Trading, LLC assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by any individual or entity as a result of trade alerts or strategies taught through courses or coaching services. 7154 W State Street Suite 169 Boise Idaho 83714 USA [Unsubscribe]( | [Change Subscriber Options](